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Smart Investor: Next Drivers for Stocks, Risks for Index Investors, and Economic Outlook

Want to stay informed with market insights and investing ideas from Morningstar? Sign up for my weekly Smart Investor newsletter here . This week’s highlights: It was a week with plenty of news, but not much movement in the markets.

Smart Investor: Next Drivers for Stocks, Risks for Index Investors, and Economic Outlook

Want to stay informed with market insights and investing ideas from Morningstar? Sign up for my weekly Smart Investor newsletter here . This week’s highlights: It was a week with plenty of news, but not much movement in the markets.

The biggest headline was the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point boost to interest rates Wednesday to address stubbornly high inflation. The officials’ unanimous move was widely expected, and stocks showed little response. Investors now turn to the question of how many more rate hikes lie ahead.

Morningstar senior US economist Preston Caldwell thinks the Fed has one more rate hike up its sleeve in 2026. But from there, Caldwell diverges from market opinion and sees rate cuts coming in 2027. Find out why here .

With the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023 in the rearview mirror, what’s next for the stock market? Colin Laidley takes a look at what analysts and investors say will be the market’s next drivers. In the background, the news flow continued around the artificial intelligence safety debate.

While investors continue to await an IPO filing from Anthropic, competitor OpenAI reportedly seeks funding at a $1.2 trillion valuation. PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes offers up thoughts on how to interpret that big number . Also this past week, PitchBook’s Jacob Robbins digs into the valuations for data and AI company Databricks, which is likely on track for a 2027 IPO.

The numbers don’t add up, he reports . Back in the public market, Morningstar Index’s Dan Lefkovitz highlights three big risks facing index investors. It won’t be too much of a spoiler to say that AI-fueled stocks come up more than a few times.

But one risk may be a bit of a surprise . As always, be sure to visit our Markets page for our latest coverage along with our full weekly calendar of key upcoming data and events. The author or authors do not own shares in any securities mentioned in this article.

Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies .

Source: Morningstar

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